How correct are mystical predictions about Pakistan?

How correct are mystical predictions about Pakistan?
by: From the Newspaper | Rauf Parekh | 14 hours ago


BEFORE I say anything about predictions by mystics and saints, please be assured that neither am I one of those who too readily believe in soothsayers, mystical or otherwise, nor do I intend to convince the readers of the validity of divine prophecies about Pakistan’s future. Rather the purpose of this piece is just to share with the readers the contents of an interesting research article on the subject of mystical predictions, which has just appeared in a literary magazine, as the article presents different views with an academic detachment.

Casting shadows of doubts over Pakistan’s future has been a favorite pastime of many ever since the country came into being and there has never been any dearth of pessimists who love to draw bleakest scenarios of Pakistan’s future. The so-called think-tanks in the West had even predicted, in their ‘research-based studies’, total chaos in the country; Pakistan becoming a failed state or even its disintegration in the first decade of the 21st century. A country — the most allied ally of the West — that came into being against all odds and survived against all odds has yet again managed to survive beyond the deadline given by our western well-wishers. Of late, some Western scholars have become more careful and they talk about only the near-future of Pakistan, say five to seven years, and are kind enough to vaguely say that in the near-future the country might “muddle along” in the same manner as it did in the past.

But, strangely enough, there have always been some people, no matter how few, who have had great confidence in this country’s future, which has generally not looked much promising. Aside from the common Pakistanis, the bunch of these optimists includes some mystics and saints, too. Interestingly, some websites have been posting predictions about the country’s bright future on the basis of prophecies attributed to a Sufi saint named Shah Ne’matullah Vali. Shah Sahib’s ‘qaseedas’, or panegyric odes, that have recently become hugely popular again are known for their prophecies. Just as symbolic and as arcane as the predictions by Nostradamus, these poems forecast, according to some interpreters, among other things, Pakistan would not only become a prosperous country but one that leads the world. Sounds too good to be true? Well, maybe.

Mumtaz Mufti, one of Urdu’s prominent fiction writers of the 20th century, had turned to mysticism during the latter part of his life. Mufti Sahib had always been very confident about Pakistan’s bright future. His optimism was based on some spiritual experiences and prophecies of some Sufis he was in touch with. When Dr Najeeba Arif, International Islamic University’s faculty member, carried out a research on Mumtaz Mufti’s life and works, the mystical dimension of Mufti’s life, too, came under her probe. In her doctoral dissertation, Dr Arif had brought under discussion this aspect of his life and works. Now she has come up with a research paper that discusses the prophecies about Pakistan based on Shah Ne’matullah Vali’s predictions.

Published in ‘Mabahis’, a new Urdu research journal from Lahore and edited by Prof (Dr) Tehseen Firaqi, the paper’s title can be translated as ‘Pakistan: a dreamland for South Asian Muslims or a failed state, a recent scholastic perspective of Shah Ne’matullah Vali’s prophecies’.

She begins her paper with some deliberations of the international conference on Pakistan held in Italy in May 2010. Delegates from 16 countries participated in the conference and all but one said that Pakistan was a failed state. The only delegate who disagreed with the view was a former diplomat, Tariq Fatemi. He later admitted to Dr Arif in an interview that he did not have enough evidence to prove his optimism about Pakistan’s future.

Trying to find a balanced approach towards the issue of Pakistan’s future, she reminds the readers of the forecasts posted on different websites and then refers to a paper by a renowned scholar, Prof C.M. Naim, who has been associated with the Chicago University for long.

Titled ‘Prophecies in South Asian Muslim discourse: the poems of Shah Ne’matullah Vali’, Prof Naim’s paper has appeared in an Indian research journal and he has shown doubts about the genuineness of Shah Ne’matullah’s poems. These poems not only predict that a new era of peace and prosperity is to dawn soon but, according to some interpretations, Pakistan is to become a super power. The prophecies include one that says Islam would be revived and Muslims would conquer India. Prof Naim thinks that these versified predictions, originally in Persian and translated into Urdu, surfaced first during the upheaval of 1857 (to encourage those who were fighting against the British forces) and again when political and economic situation deteriorated in Pakistan. The recent reemergence of these predictions shows, according to him, that all is not well in Pakistan and these verses have been used for ulterior motives in the past too. He alleges that the reemergence of these predictions might have been a work of Pakistan’s armed forces. His paper drew sharp reaction and criticism on websites and blogs.

Some 20 years ago, a booklet titled ‘Azeem paishingoiyaan’ (great predictions) containing Shah Ne’matullah’s predictions was published from Karachi, too, and this writer has a photocopy of that booklet. Even if the verses are genuine, the Urdu translation and the interpretations seem wishful. But attributing a renewed general interest in them to Pakistan’s armed forces is so far-fetched that one wonders how a veteran scholar like C.M. Naim can believe in it. Dr Arif has tried to trace the tradition of these forecasts, and the ones attributed to some other mystics, and then tried to figure out how authentic these poems are and whether there are sources other than Shah Sahib’s predictions about the great future of Pakistan that we all dream of.

She has first established the facts about the life of Shah Ne’matullah Vali (C.1329-1431) with historical sources and says that Shah Sahib was not only a well-known and revered Sufi saint but he founded a ‘silsila’ (an order of dervishes). He was a prolific writer and a poet, too. His divan was published from Tehran but more popular are his verses that contain predictions. She then quotes E.G. Browne, who confirms that Shah Sahib’s poems are “couched in the prophetic strain” and they “still exercise a certain influence”. Browne had visited Shah Ne’matullah’s mausoleum in Kirman and reproduced in his book the famous poem that consists of 50 couplets and contains predictions. Dr Arif also tells us that different versions of the poem containing slightly different text also exist. Prof Naim thinks some couplets were added later. Dr Arif has reproduced the entire poem from authentic sources and has given a gist of its meanings. But there are other poems too that have additional predictions. She then reveals that the authenticity of some of the poems may be questionable.

Dr Arif then narrates the visions and dreams of different Sufis, all of which point to a brilliant future for Pakistan. But the paper finishes with a message for her fellow Pakistanis: we must work hard and show a character that justifies the great Pakistani dream.

Now a few words about the magazine ‘Mabahis’ that carries the article: as it is edited by Dr Firaqi who is known for his meticulousness and a knack for perfection, one can well imagine the high standard that he has set from the very first issue.

ISI-Bashing: A US Battle Transferred to Pakistan

By Ahmed Quraishi

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan—What is the right balance between a healthy skepticism of Pakistani military and ISI and between antagonism toward both?

Pakistani media and politicians have to define this balance to avoid unnecessary divisions in Pakistan. These divisions serve to weaken a vital line of defense for the Pakistani state. The United States is orchestrating a get-ISI campaign in the US media. This campaign must not be transferred inside Pakistan, where a US-backed lobby groomed during the past eight years is acting as America’s B-team, mounting a Pakistani version of the American campaign against Pakistani military.

There have always been anti-military leftists and ex-communists in the Pakistani media, promoting extreme ideas such as disbanding the military. This lobby has been vocal but never too much. These days, this lobby has gained a new vigor thanks to the US propaganda against Pakistani military.

The brutal assassination of noted journalist and my friend Syed Saleem Shahzad has laid bare this decades-old feature of Pakistani politics.

The ISI is our principal tool for counterintelligence and information gathering. It is the eyes and ears of our strategic community as we navigate our way through a difficult neighborhood.

The antagonism toward ISI as seen in the past few weeks is not natural to the system but manufactured and sustained through a combination of lack of information, real mistakes, rumors, half-truths, and in some cases outright propaganda. Some of this antagonism is rooted in skepticism toward state power. That’s healthy for any vibrant society. But in Pakistan, the lines between skepticism and animosity have blurred over the years. Expressions of this animosity in some corners of our politics and media surpass anything seen in stable and mature democracies. After all, a democratic system needs a functioning state, including educated voters, independent media, judiciary, military and intelligence. A state could collapse without educated voters, or without a working military and intelligence. Choose your pick.

Shahzad’s brutal assassination brought the unhealthy anti-military antagonism within our system to the surface. It was stunning to watch some leading pundits in our media accuse ISI of killing Shahzad without evidence, and simultaneously ignore strong circumstantial evidence on the involvement of elements close to the terrorists of al-Qaeda and Pakistani Taliban. Shahzad maintained close contacts with sources in the two terror groups, as his scoops on numerous occasions indicate. You can’t blame the foreign media, especially media based in the United States, for giving a spin to any story where ISI is mentioned, since this Pakistani agency has become too independent for American taste. But at least at home we should question all angles and not simply ride the wave.

For example, western media saw in Shahzad’s article that purportedly led to his brutal death an embarrassment for Pakistani military and thus a motive for ISI to eliminate him. Many people in our media picked up this theory. That’s an angle worth probing, but so is the fact that the same article exposes al-Qaeda links to the attack on the naval base in Karachi. If it did it, Al-Qaeda didn’t claim responsibility. Late Shahzad did. Did he fell out with his terror informants? No one knows for sure. But it’s an angle worth probing.

The anti-military antagonism has probably blinded many of us to exploring other important angles. For example, ISI itself was badly burned when two of its ex-operatives were killed by Pakistani Taliban earlier this year while trying to create inroads within the terror group. Likewise, US journalist Daniel Pearl paid with his life for getting too close to unscrupulous elements.

A meeting between Shahzad and officers from the media management wing of ISI last year is cited as evidence that the spy agency was harassing him. The agency’s version is very straightforward: they met Shahzad at a registered government office about a story he did and asked him either to confirm his sources or retract the story because it damaged Pakistani interests. Shahzad declined both demands and that was it. One friend and acquaintance of Shahzad, Mr. Najm Sethi, said the meeting constituted a threat. Another friend of Shahzad, Mr. Ejaz Haider, wrote that his friend mentioned the meeting with ISI but didn’t characterize it as a threat.

It is fair to say that ISI, by virtue of the said meeting, should be included in Shahzad’s murder investigation. But that is quite different from saying ISI is the killer and ignore all evidence that points to other possibilities. That said, we do have a history in Pakistan of secret government agents kidnapping journalists, beating them up and then releasing them, alive. But most of us forget that this culture is not part of what our security agencies want to do. It was thrust on them by governments, often democratic ones. Security agents from various agencies of the government have at different times kidnapped and ‘sorted out’ journalists under orders from several democratic and non-democratic governments in Islamabad. In most of such cases journalists were harassed because powerful figures in government wanted to harass them and used state power for the purpose.

There is also the legacy of how state institutions were used to settle political differences. This burden of history should not be overblown and used to create a wedge between state institutions such as the ISI and ordinary Pakistanis.

A version of this column appeared in The News on 6 June 2011.